Daily risk briefing ·
Market crash risk on 20 July 2026: 61.7% (Nearly Crash)
vs previous day change −2.4 pts vs previous day vs 1 week earlier change −1.6 pts vs 1 week earlier
This briefing was published under methodology v1 (fixed thresholds, trend penalty, regime multiplier). Its numbers are kept as published and are not comparable with v2 readings. See the current methodology.
Summary
The Financial Composite Gauge registered 62.0% (Nearly Crash), the Overall Gauge hit 61.7% (Nearly Crash), and the Geopolitical Layer is 60.7% (Severe). These elevated risks are driven by Iranian attacks on Kuwaiti infrastructure and escalating US military strikes on Iran. Consequently, markets face severe energy supply disruptions, likely triggering defensive capital reallocation and heightened volatility.
Geopolitical drivers
- Iran Attacks Kuwait Infrastructure88Iran's targeted strikes on Kuwaiti infrastructure directly threaten Gulf energy supply/prices and elevate risks to shipping lanes/chokepoints.
- US Strikes on Iran Escalate85US military strikes against Iran risk wider regional war, directly threatening global energy supply/prices and critical Middle East shipping lanes.
- US Bombing of Iran and Diplomatic Signals68A ninth night of US bombing in Iran maintains extreme pressure on energy supply/prices, though diplomatic overtures could mitigate great-power escalation.
Biggest 5-day market moves
- Bitcoin/USD +1103.78
- S&P 500 Index −117.70
- Gold Spot Price +40.20
Chart values use methodology v2 (point-in-time backfill), so they differ from the v1 numbers published above.
Show data table
| Date | Total | Financial | Geopolitical | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04 | 40.9 | 36.1 | 68.5 | Cautious |
| 2026-08-03 | 46.8 | 42.6 | 70.3 | Cautious |
| 2026-07-31 | 50.1 | 46.1 | 72.9 | Risky |
| 2026-07-30 | 56.9 | 54.2 | 72.2 | Risky |
| 2026-07-29 | 53.0 | 49.9 | 70.6 | Risky |
| 2026-07-28 | 53.2 | 50.2 | 69.9 | Risky |
| 2026-07-27 | 52.0 | 49.0 | 69.0 | Risky |
| 2026-07-24 | 52.3 | 49.0 | 71.4 | Risky |
| 2026-07-23 | 44.9 | 39.8 | 73.3 | Cautious |
| 2026-07-22 | 46.1 | 41.4 | 73.0 | Cautious |
| 2026-07-21 | 49.4 | 45.3 | 72.3 | Cautious |
| 2026-07-20 | 49.4 | 45.7 | 70.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-07-17 | 45.2 | 40.6 | 71.0 | Cautious |
| 2026-07-16 | 41.6 | 37.0 | 68.1 | Cautious |
| 2026-07-15 | 46.1 | 42.2 | 68.4 | Cautious |
| 2026-07-14 | 47.4 | 44.2 | 65.9 | Cautious |
| 2026-07-13 | 39.7 | 35.7 | 62.2 | Cautious |
| 2026-07-10 | 40.5 | 38.5 | 52.0 | Cautious |
| 2026-07-09 | 45.9 | 44.9 | 51.5 | Cautious |
| 2026-07-08 | 43.9 | 42.5 | 52.1 | Cautious |
| 2026-07-07 | 41.9 | 40.1 | 52.2 | Cautious |
| 2026-07-06 | 44.8 | 43.0 | 55.0 | Cautious |
Not financial advice. Use the gauge as a risk thermometer, not a timing oracle.