Daily risk briefing ·
Market crash risk on 22 August 2026: 71.6% (Nearly Crash)
vs previous day change +0.8 pts vs previous day vs 1 week earlier change +0.8 pts vs 1 week earlier
Game Over Gauge71.6%Multiple stress signals agree. Historically fragile conditions for risk assets.
Financial stress76.3%
Geopolitical risk57.4
Market regimerisk-off
Summary
The Financial Composite Gauge registered 76.3% (Nearly Crash), the Overall Gauge hit 71.6% (Nearly Crash), and the Geopolitical Layer is 57.4% (Risky).
Key geopolitical drivers include US tariffs on Canadian goods and ongoing Panama Canal shipping restrictions.
Severe financial stress outpaces geopolitical risk, indicating intense market vulnerability to trade and supply chain disruptions.
Geopolitical drivers
- US Imposes Tariffs on Canadian Goods64Escalating trade tensions and retaliatory tariffs between the US and Canada can disrupt supply chains and impact bilateral trade flows, affecting risk sentiment.
- Panama Canal Shipping Restrictions60Reduced shipping capacity in the Panama Canal due to drought will increase transit times and costs for global trade, impacting shipping rates and commodity prices.
- Lebanon's Deepening Economic Contraction39The projected significant contraction of Lebanon's economy due to ongoing conflict and instability can lead to sovereign debt concerns and regional contagion risk.
Biggest 5-day market moves
- Bitcoin/USD +14162.33
- Gold Spot Price +243.70
- S&P 500 Index −111.39
Show data table
| Date | Total | Financial | Geopolitical | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | 65.7 | 71.0 | 50.0 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-09-05 | 66.0 | 71.0 | 50.9 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-09-04 | 66.1 | 71.4 | 50.1 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-09-03 | 66.9 | 71.9 | 51.9 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-31 | 62.2 | 65.3 | 52.9 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-30 | 62.4 | 64.6 | 55.8 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-29 | 61.8 | 64.6 | 53.5 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-28 | 64.4 | 68.3 | 52.6 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-27 | 68.8 | 73.6 | 54.6 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-26 | 70.2 | 74.9 | 56.2 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-25 | 69.4 | 74.7 | 53.6 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-24 | 70.0 | 74.9 | 55.4 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-23 | 68.4 | 73.4 | 53.2 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-22 | 71.6 | 76.3 | 57.4 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-11 | 70.8 | 75.4 | 57.1 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-10 | 64.4 | 67.9 | 53.7 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-09 | 69.9 | 74.4 | 56.3 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-08 | 70.0 | 74.5 | 56.6 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-07 | 69.3 | 74.1 | 55.0 | Nearly Crash |
Not financial advice. Use the gauge as a risk thermometer, not a timing oracle.