Daily risk briefing ·
Market crash risk on 23 August 2026: 68.4% (Nearly Crash)
vs previous day change −3.2 pts vs previous day vs 1 week earlier change −2.4 pts vs 1 week earlier
Game Over Gauge68.4%Multiple stress signals agree. Historically fragile conditions for risk assets.
Financial stress73.4%
Geopolitical risk53.2
Market regimerisk-off
Summary
The Financial Composite Gauge registered 73.4% (Nearly Crash), the Overall Gauge hit 68.4% (Nearly Crash), and the Geopolitical Layer is 53.2% (Risky).
Primary drivers include escalating US-Canada retaliatory tariffs (63.8%) and Iran-linked cyberattacks targeting power infrastructure (59.5%).
Severe financial stress outpaces geopolitical risk, signaling acute systemic vulnerability and heightened downside pressures across markets.
Geopolitical drivers
- US-Canada Trade War Escalates with Retaliatory Tariffs64Retaliatory tariffs between the US and Canada will disrupt trade flows and could impact supply chains, leading to higher prices and reduced economic activity. This also increases credit risk sentiment.
- Iran-Linked Hackers Target Power Plant60Cyberattacks on critical infrastructure like power plants can lead to energy supply disruptions and price volatility, while also raising concerns about broader geopolitical cyber warfare and risk sentiment.
- Corruption Allegations Emerge in Ukraine Amidst War39Internal corruption allegations in Ukraine could impact the effectiveness of Western aid and reconstruction efforts, potentially affecting investor confidence and the long-term economic outlook for the region.
Biggest 5-day market moves
- Bitcoin/USD +13540.78
- Gold Spot Price +300.20
- S&P 500 Index −111.39
Show data table
| Date | Total | Financial | Geopolitical | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | 65.0 | 70.9 | 47.4 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-09-06 | 65.7 | 71.0 | 50.0 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-09-05 | 66.0 | 71.0 | 50.9 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-09-04 | 66.1 | 71.4 | 50.1 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-09-03 | 66.9 | 71.9 | 51.9 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-31 | 62.2 | 65.3 | 52.9 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-30 | 62.4 | 64.6 | 55.8 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-29 | 61.8 | 64.6 | 53.5 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-28 | 64.4 | 68.3 | 52.6 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-27 | 68.8 | 73.6 | 54.6 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-26 | 70.2 | 74.9 | 56.2 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-25 | 69.4 | 74.7 | 53.6 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-24 | 70.0 | 74.9 | 55.4 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-23 | 68.4 | 73.4 | 53.2 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-22 | 71.6 | 76.3 | 57.4 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-11 | 70.8 | 75.4 | 57.1 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-10 | 64.4 | 67.9 | 53.7 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-09 | 69.9 | 74.4 | 56.3 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-08 | 70.0 | 74.5 | 56.6 | Nearly Crash |
Not financial advice. Use the gauge as a risk thermometer, not a timing oracle.