Daily risk briefing ·
Market crash risk on 12 September 2026: 73.4% (Nearly Crash)
vs previous day change +7.2 pts vs previous day vs 1 week earlier change +7.4 pts vs 1 week earlier
This briefing was published under methodology v1 (fixed thresholds, trend penalty, regime multiplier). Its numbers are kept as published and are not comparable with v2 readings. See the current methodology.
Game Over Gauge73.4%Multiple stress signals agree (methodology v1).
Financial stress80.2%
Geopolitical risk52.9
Market regimerisk-off
Summary
The Financial Composite Gauge registered 80.2% (Game Over), the Overall Gauge hit 73.4% (Nearly Crash), and the Ge
Geopolitical drivers
- Saudi Pipeline Shutdown After Drone Strike88The shutdown of a primary crude transit pipeline directly impacts global energy supply/prices and elevates Middle East geopolitical risk premia.
- Russian Missile Attacks on Ukrainian Cargo Ships and Steelworks66Direct kinetic hits on commercial cargo vessels threaten Black Sea shipping lanes/chokepoints and drive up maritime insurance and agricultural commodity costs.
- Severe Winter Energy Deficits Facing Ukraine61Severe power grid degradation ahead of peak winter demand threatens regional energy supply/prices and heightens European emergency power import dependence.
Biggest 5-day market moves
- Bitcoin/USD −2331.16
- Gold Spot Price −63.60
- S&P 500 Index −61.62
Chart values use methodology v2 (point-in-time backfill), so they differ from the v1 numbers published above.
Show data table
| Date | Total | Financial | Geopolitical | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-25 | 43.9 | 41.1 | 59.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-24 | 39.9 | 36.2 | 60.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-23 | 34.4 | 29.8 | 60.8 | Safe |
| 2026-09-22 | 38.5 | 29.9 | 87.1 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-21 | 37.9 | 34.0 | 59.7 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-18 | 39.9 | 36.1 | 61.3 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-17 | 45.5 | 43.0 | 60.0 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-16 | 45.8 | 43.1 | 61.4 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-15 | 44.6 | 41.1 | 64.0 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-14 | 40.6 | 36.3 | 65.6 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-11 | 48.8 | 42.2 | 85.6 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-10 | 41.7 | 38.2 | 61.7 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-09 | 39.6 | 35.6 | 62.3 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-08 | 40.7 | 32.4 | 87.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-07 | 35.4 | 31.4 | 58.2 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-04 | 33.2 | 29.0 | 57.1 | Safe |
| 2026-09-03 | 39.7 | 36.4 | 58.2 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-02 | 43.5 | 38.3 | 73.1 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-01 | 36.6 | 30.6 | 70.7 | Cautious |
| 2026-08-31 | 32.2 | 27.4 | 59.5 | Safe |
| 2026-08-28 | 31.2 | 26.4 | 58.3 | Safe |
Not financial advice. Use the gauge as a risk thermometer, not a timing oracle.