Daily risk briefing ·
Market crash risk on 17 September 2026: 64.3% (Nearly Crash)
vs previous day change −3.3 pts vs previous day vs 1 week earlier change −1.9 pts vs 1 week earlier
This briefing was published under methodology v1 (fixed thresholds, trend penalty, regime multiplier). Its numbers are kept as published and are not comparable with v2 readings. See the current methodology.
Game Over Gauge64.3%Multiple stress signals agree (methodology v1).
Financial stress69.9%
Geopolitical risk47.4
Market regimerisk-off
Summary
Financial Composite and Overall Gauges are Nearly Crash, Geopolitical is Risky.
US tariffs on Russian oil and Falklands oil project suspension are top drivers.
These geopolitical risks could exacerbate market downturns.
Geopolitical drivers
- US Tariffs on Russian Oil Raise Concerns for India-Russia Ties64New US tariffs on Russian oil could disrupt global energy supply chains and impact trade relations, potentially affecting energy prices and credit sentiment.
- Argentinian Judge Suspends Falklands Oil Project42Suspension of an oil project in a disputed territory can impact energy supply expectations and create geopolitical uncertainty, affecting energy prices.
- Israel Weaponizes AI for West Bank Demolitions39The use of AI in conflict escalation, particularly in sensitive regions, can lead to increased instability and affect regional trade and investment flows.
Biggest 5-day market moves
- Bitcoin/USD −1726.52
- S&P 500 Index −84.55
- Gold Spot Price −55.90
Chart values use methodology v2 (point-in-time backfill), so they differ from the v1 numbers published above.
Show data table
| Date | Total | Financial | Geopolitical | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-02 | 51.8 | 49.4 | 65.7 | Risky |
| 2026-10-01 | 51.5 | 49.4 | 63.8 | Risky |
| 2026-09-30 | 50.8 | 48.4 | 64.6 | Risky |
| 2026-09-29 | 50.0 | 47.0 | 67.1 | Risky |
| 2026-09-28 | 42.5 | 38.4 | 65.4 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-25 | 43.9 | 41.1 | 59.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-24 | 39.9 | 36.2 | 60.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-23 | 34.4 | 29.8 | 60.8 | Safe |
| 2026-09-22 | 38.5 | 29.9 | 87.1 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-21 | 37.9 | 34.0 | 59.7 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-18 | 39.9 | 36.1 | 61.3 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-17 | 45.5 | 43.0 | 60.0 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-16 | 45.8 | 43.1 | 61.4 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-15 | 44.6 | 41.1 | 64.0 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-14 | 40.6 | 36.3 | 65.6 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-11 | 48.8 | 42.2 | 85.6 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-10 | 41.7 | 38.2 | 61.7 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-09 | 39.6 | 35.6 | 62.3 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-08 | 40.7 | 32.4 | 87.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-07 | 35.4 | 31.4 | 58.2 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-04 | 33.2 | 29.0 | 57.1 | Safe |
| 2026-09-03 | 39.7 | 36.4 | 58.2 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-02 | 43.5 | 38.3 | 73.1 | Cautious |
Not financial advice. Use the gauge as a risk thermometer, not a timing oracle.