Daily risk briefing ·
Market crash risk on 18 September 2026: 64.6% (Nearly Crash)
vs previous day change +0.3 pts vs previous day vs 1 week earlier change −1.6 pts vs 1 week earlier
This briefing was published under methodology v1 (fixed thresholds, trend penalty, regime multiplier). Its numbers are kept as published and are not comparable with v2 readings. See the current methodology.
Game Over Gauge64.6%Multiple stress signals agree (methodology v1).
Financial stress70.1%
Geopolitical risk48.0
Market regimerisk-off
Summary
Financial Composite and Overall Gauges are Nearly Crash, Geopolitical Layer is Risky.
Yemen conflict and Iran human rights allegations are top drivers.
These risks suggest potential for heightened market volatility.
Geopolitical drivers
- Yemen Conflict Drives Regional Inflation64Ongoing conflict in Yemen and the wider region directly impacts energy supply routes and prices, increasing global inflation. This affects commodity markets and consumer spending.
- UN Alleges Crimes Against Humanity in Iran60UN allegations of crimes against humanity in Iran could lead to new international sanctions, disrupting trade and impacting oil supply sentiment.
- Russian Strike on Zaporizhzhia68Russian strikes on civilian infrastructure in Zaporizhzhia escalate the conflict, posing risks to energy infrastructure and increasing global risk aversion.
Biggest 5-day market moves
- Bitcoin/USD +1721.10
- S&P 500 Index +46.06
- Gold Spot Price +23.80
Chart values use methodology v2 (point-in-time backfill), so they differ from the v1 numbers published above.
Show data table
| Date | Total | Financial | Geopolitical | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-02 | 51.8 | 49.4 | 65.7 | Risky |
| 2026-10-01 | 51.5 | 49.4 | 63.8 | Risky |
| 2026-09-30 | 50.8 | 48.4 | 64.6 | Risky |
| 2026-09-29 | 50.0 | 47.0 | 67.1 | Risky |
| 2026-09-28 | 42.5 | 38.4 | 65.4 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-25 | 43.9 | 41.1 | 59.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-24 | 39.9 | 36.2 | 60.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-23 | 34.4 | 29.8 | 60.8 | Safe |
| 2026-09-22 | 38.5 | 29.9 | 87.1 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-21 | 37.9 | 34.0 | 59.7 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-18 | 39.9 | 36.1 | 61.3 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-17 | 45.5 | 43.0 | 60.0 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-16 | 45.8 | 43.1 | 61.4 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-15 | 44.6 | 41.1 | 64.0 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-14 | 40.6 | 36.3 | 65.6 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-11 | 48.8 | 42.2 | 85.6 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-10 | 41.7 | 38.2 | 61.7 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-09 | 39.6 | 35.6 | 62.3 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-08 | 40.7 | 32.4 | 87.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-07 | 35.4 | 31.4 | 58.2 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-04 | 33.2 | 29.0 | 57.1 | Safe |
| 2026-09-03 | 39.7 | 36.4 | 58.2 | Cautious |
Not financial advice. Use the gauge as a risk thermometer, not a timing oracle.