Daily risk briefing ·
Market crash risk on 13 September 2026: 74.2% (Nearly Crash)
vs previous day change +0.8 pts vs previous day vs 1 week earlier change +8.5 pts vs 1 week earlier
Game Over Gauge74.2%Multiple stress signals agree. Historically fragile conditions for risk assets.
Financial stress80.3%
Geopolitical risk56.1
Market regimerisk-off
Summary
Financial Composite is 80.3% (Game Over), Overall Gauge 74.2% (Nearly Crash), Geopolitical 56.1% (Risky).
Fatal Strike and Houthi seizure are top geopolitical drivers.
These events signal heightened regional risk impacting markets.
Geopolitical drivers
- Fatal Strike on Commercial Ship in Strait of Hormuz88Lethal drone or missile strikes on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz directly threaten crude transit corridors, escalating maritime insurance premiums and driving immediate risk premia across global energy supply and prices.
- Houthi Forces Seize Strategic Mayun Island in Bab al-Mandeb84Control of Mayun Island establishes direct military interdiction capabilities over the Bab al-Mandeb chokepoint, forcing extensive container rerouting and severely disrupting global shipping lanes and maritime freight rates.
- Drone Launch Platform Targeting Saudi Pipeline Interdicted in Iraq65The interdiction of long-range drone infrastructure targeting Saudi oil pipelines signals persistent cross-border asymmetric risks to critical Gulf hydrocarbons, sustaining supply disruption fears in global energy markets.
Biggest 5-day market moves
- Bitcoin/USD −3021.60
- S&P 500 Index −61.62
- Gold Spot Price −20.90
Show data table
| Date | Total | Financial | Geopolitical | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-28 | 65.8 | 69.6 | 54.3 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-09-27 | 68.3 | 73.2 | 53.3 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-09-26 | 67.2 | 73.2 | 49.1 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-09-25 | 72.1 | 79.7 | 49.5 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-09-24 | 71.7 | 79.1 | 49.6 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-09-23 | 63.7 | 68.6 | 49.1 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-09-21 | 63.9 | 69.0 | 48.5 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-09-20 | 63.9 | 69.1 | 48.5 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-09-19 | 64.7 | 69.1 | 51.5 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-09-18 | 64.6 | 70.1 | 48.0 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-09-17 | 64.3 | 69.9 | 47.4 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-09-16 | 67.6 | 73.4 | 50.2 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-09-15 | 68.2 | 72.8 | 54.4 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-09-14 | 74.1 | 80.2 | 55.5 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-09-13 | 74.2 | 80.3 | 56.1 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-09-12 | 73.4 | 80.2 | 52.9 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-09-10 | 66.2 | 71.7 | 50.0 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-09-09 | 63.5 | 67.8 | 50.7 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-09-07 | 65.0 | 70.9 | 47.4 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-09-06 | 65.7 | 71.0 | 50.0 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-09-05 | 66.0 | 71.0 | 50.9 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-09-04 | 66.1 | 71.4 | 50.1 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-09-03 | 66.9 | 71.9 | 51.9 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-31 | 62.2 | 65.3 | 52.9 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-30 | 62.4 | 64.6 | 55.8 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-29 | 61.8 | 64.6 | 53.5 | Nearly Crash |
Not financial advice. Use the gauge as a risk thermometer, not a timing oracle.