Daily risk briefing ·
Market crash risk on 11 October 2026: 46.8% (Cautious)
vs previous day change +0.4 pts vs previous day vs 1 week earlier: n/a
Game Over Gauge46.8%Around the long-run middle. Some indicators are elevated; worth watching, rarely worth acting on alone.
Financial stress43.7%
Geopolitical risk64.5
Market regimeneutral
Summary
The Overall Gauge sits at 46.8/100 (Cautious), financial stress is 43.7/100 (Cautious), and the geopolitical layer is 64.5/100 (Severe). Stress is driven by one-month changes in 10-year real yields, high-yield spreads, and Middle East conflict pressuring fuel markets. These readings reflect a cautious market environment characterized by moderate financial strain and heightened geopolitical tension.
Geopolitical drivers
- Middle East War Tightens Global Distillate and Fuel Markets64War-induced interruptions to regional crude flows continue to spike refined product and diesel prices, transmitting cost-push inflation across corporate supply chains and transport logistics.
- US Military Action in Gulf of Oman and Houthi Strikes on Saudi Targets41Direct US strikes on vessels running the Iran blockade and threatened joint US-Saudi strikes following Houthi attacks on Riyadh airport risk great-power escalation and severe disruption to Persian Gulf shipping lanes and energy infrastructure.
- Emergency Rule Imposed in Pakistan Amid Political Turmoil18The imposition of provincial emergency rule deepens governance instability in Pakistan, weighing on local sovereign credit sentiment and multilateral financing prospects.
Biggest 5-day market moves
Show data table
| Date | Total | Financial | Geopolitical | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-13 | 47.4 | 44.3 | 64.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-10-11 | 46.8 | 43.7 | 64.5 | Cautious |
| 2026-10-10 | 46.4 | 43.7 | 61.6 | Cautious |
| 2026-10-02 | 51.8 | 49.4 | 65.7 | Risky |
| 2026-10-01 | 51.5 | 49.4 | 63.8 | Risky |
| 2026-09-30 | 50.8 | 48.4 | 64.6 | Risky |
| 2026-09-29 | 50.0 | 47.0 | 67.1 | Risky |
| 2026-09-28 | 42.5 | 38.4 | 65.4 | Cautious |
Not financial advice. Use the gauge as a risk thermometer, not a timing oracle.