Daily risk briefing ·
Market crash risk on 26 July 2026: 68.3% (Nearly Crash)
vs previous day change +0.8 pts vs previous day vs 1 week earlier change +4.2 pts vs 1 week earlier
This briefing was published under methodology v1 (fixed thresholds, trend penalty, regime multiplier). Its numbers are kept as published and are not comparable with v2 readings. See the current methodology.
Summary
The Financial Composite Gauge registered 70.3% (Nearly Crash), the Overall Gauge hit 68.3% (Nearly Crash), and the Geopolitical Layer is 62.1% (Severe). Escalations are driven by Houthi strikes on Saudi oil infrastructure and US forces disabling an Iran blockade-violating tanker. These energy supply threats elevate systemic risk, pushing financial indicators dangerously close to crash thresholds.
Geopolitical drivers
- Houthi strikes target Saudi oil infrastructure88Houthi attacks against Saudi energy targets directly threaten Persian Gulf crude export stability, transmitting shock through the energy supply/prices channel.
- US-Iran conflict expands to new operational fronts85Active engagements involving US, Iranian, and proxy forces threaten wider regional warfare through the great-power escalation channel.
- US military disables tanker violating Iran blockade70Direct maritime intervention by US forces escalates shipping risks in Persian Gulf transit corridors, operating via the sanctions/trade disruption channel.
Biggest 5-day market moves
- Bitcoin/USD −297.58
- Gold Spot Price +58.10
- S&P 500 Index −45.71
Chart values use methodology v2 (point-in-time backfill), so they differ from the v1 numbers published above.
Show data table
| Date | Total | Financial | Geopolitical | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-10 | 35.9 | 31.5 | 60.6 | Cautious |
| 2026-08-07 | 39.8 | 35.5 | 64.4 | Cautious |
| 2026-08-06 | 38.9 | 33.9 | 67.2 | Cautious |
| 2026-08-05 | 39.7 | 34.3 | 70.2 | Cautious |
| 2026-08-04 | 40.9 | 36.1 | 68.5 | Cautious |
| 2026-08-03 | 46.8 | 42.6 | 70.3 | Cautious |
| 2026-07-31 | 50.1 | 46.1 | 72.9 | Risky |
| 2026-07-30 | 56.9 | 54.2 | 72.2 | Risky |
| 2026-07-29 | 53.0 | 49.9 | 70.6 | Risky |
| 2026-07-28 | 53.2 | 50.2 | 69.9 | Risky |
| 2026-07-27 | 52.0 | 49.0 | 69.0 | Risky |
| 2026-07-24 | 52.3 | 49.0 | 71.4 | Risky |
| 2026-07-23 | 44.9 | 39.8 | 73.3 | Cautious |
| 2026-07-22 | 46.1 | 41.4 | 73.0 | Cautious |
| 2026-07-21 | 49.4 | 45.3 | 72.3 | Cautious |
| 2026-07-20 | 49.4 | 45.7 | 70.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-07-17 | 45.2 | 40.6 | 71.0 | Cautious |
| 2026-07-16 | 41.6 | 37.0 | 68.1 | Cautious |
| 2026-07-15 | 46.1 | 42.2 | 68.4 | Cautious |
| 2026-07-14 | 47.4 | 44.2 | 65.9 | Cautious |
| 2026-07-13 | 39.7 | 35.7 | 62.2 | Cautious |
Not financial advice. Use the gauge as a risk thermometer, not a timing oracle.