Daily risk briefing ·
Market crash risk on 1 August 2026: 65.8% (Nearly Crash)
vs previous day change −6.9 pts vs previous day vs 1 week earlier change −1.7 pts vs 1 week earlier
Game Over Gauge65.8%Multiple stress signals agree. Historically fragile conditions for risk assets.
Financial stress66.4%
Geopolitical risk63.9
Market regimerisk-off
Summary
The Financial Composite Gauge registered 66.4% (Nearly Crash), the Overall Gauge hit 65.8% (Nearly Crash), and the Geopolitical Layer is 63.9% (Severe). Heightened risks are primarily driven by escalating Iranian war tensions at 82.0% and intensified Kyiv missile attacks at 85.0%. These elevated indicators signal severe market volatility and justify a immediate shift toward defensive asset positioning.
Geopolitical drivers
- Iran War Escalation Tensions82Military escalation risks involving Iran threaten Persian Gulf oil exports and critical energy infrastructure. Transmission channel: energy supply/prices and great-power escalation.
- Kyiv Missile Attacks Intensify War85Renewed Russian strikes on Kyiv signal sustained war escalation and persistent geopolitical risk in Europe. Transmission channel: energy supply/prices, sanctions/trade disruption, and great-power escalation.
- Red Sea Shipping Security Risks64Uncertainty surrounding Houthi activity in the Red Sea keeps maritime transit risks elevated for commercial fleets. Transmission channel: shipping lanes/chokepoints and trade disruption.
Biggest 5-day market moves
- Bitcoin/USD −1119.88
- S&P 500 Index +77.74
- Gold Spot Price −18.50
Show data table
| Date | Total | Financial | Geopolitical | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-11 | 70.8 | 75.4 | 57.1 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-10 | 64.4 | 67.9 | 53.7 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-09 | 69.9 | 74.4 | 56.3 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-08 | 70.0 | 74.5 | 56.6 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-07 | 69.3 | 74.1 | 55.0 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-06 | 69.3 | 72.6 | 59.2 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-05 | 68.6 | 70.4 | 63.4 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-04 | 63.5 | 64.9 | 59.4 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-03 | 63.5 | 64.0 | 61.9 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-02 | 65.0 | 66.4 | 61.0 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-01 | 65.8 | 66.4 | 63.9 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-31 | 72.7 | 75.8 | 63.5 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-30 | 66.5 | 67.8 | 62.5 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-29 | 63.6 | 64.8 | 60.0 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-28 | 63.2 | 64.6 | 59.2 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-27 | 63.4 | 65.2 | 57.9 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-26 | 68.3 | 70.3 | 62.1 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-25 | 67.5 | 70.1 | 59.6 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-24 | 80.2 | 85.8 | 63.3 | Game Over |
| 2026-07-23 | 67.9 | 69.0 | 64.3 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-22 | 67.5 | 68.7 | 64.0 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-21 | 67.7 | 69.3 | 62.8 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-20 | 61.7 | 62.0 | 60.7 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-19 | 64.1 | 66.1 | 58.1 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-18 | 63.8 | 66.1 | 56.8 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-17 | 63.7 | 64.6 | 61.0 | Nearly Crash |
Not financial advice. Use the gauge as a risk thermometer, not a timing oracle.