Daily risk briefing ·
Market crash risk on 2 August 2026: 65.0% (Nearly Crash)
vs previous day change −0.8 pts vs previous day vs 1 week earlier change −3.3 pts vs 1 week earlier
This briefing was published under methodology v1 (fixed thresholds, trend penalty, regime multiplier). Its numbers are kept as published and are not comparable with v2 readings. See the current methodology.
Summary
The Financial Composite Gauge registered 66.4% (Nearly Crash), the Overall Gauge hit 65.0% (Nearly Crash), and the Geopolitical Layer is 61.0% (Severe). Key drivers include canceled US-Iran military strikes amid deal talks and easing shipping tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. Despite diplomatic de-escalation, high stress scores indicate a stark divergence between improving geopolitical headlines and systemic financial fragility.
Geopolitical drivers
- US-Iran military strike cancellation and deal talks62Trump's cancellation of military strikes on Iran reduces immediate regional conflict risk, directly impacting energy supply/prices and lowering crude oil risk premiums.
- Ongoing conflict in Gaza and Middle East volatility64Unresolved hostilities in Gaza sustain regional friction and potential Levant trade disruption, keeping risk sentiment broad-based across energy markets.
- Easing tensions around Strait of Hormuz shipping58A potential US-Iran diplomatic framework lowers potential interdiction risks across vital shipping lanes/chokepoints and maritime insurance rates.
Biggest 5-day market moves
- Bitcoin/USD −1169.24
- S&P 500 Index +77.74
- Gold Spot Price +39.40
Chart values use methodology v2 (point-in-time backfill), so they differ from the v1 numbers published above.
Show data table
| Date | Total | Financial | Geopolitical | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-17 | 32.0 | 29.7 | 44.7 | Safe |
| 2026-08-14 | 31.9 | 28.1 | 53.4 | Safe |
| 2026-08-13 | 37.2 | 32.9 | 62.0 | Cautious |
| 2026-08-12 | 41.8 | 36.2 | 73.1 | Cautious |
| 2026-08-11 | 39.1 | 35.0 | 62.6 | Cautious |
| 2026-08-10 | 35.9 | 31.5 | 60.6 | Cautious |
| 2026-08-07 | 39.8 | 35.5 | 64.4 | Cautious |
| 2026-08-06 | 38.9 | 33.9 | 67.2 | Cautious |
| 2026-08-05 | 39.7 | 34.3 | 70.2 | Cautious |
| 2026-08-04 | 40.9 | 36.1 | 68.5 | Cautious |
| 2026-08-03 | 46.8 | 42.6 | 70.3 | Cautious |
| 2026-07-31 | 50.1 | 46.1 | 72.9 | Risky |
| 2026-07-30 | 56.9 | 54.2 | 72.2 | Risky |
| 2026-07-29 | 53.0 | 49.9 | 70.6 | Risky |
| 2026-07-28 | 53.2 | 50.2 | 69.9 | Risky |
| 2026-07-27 | 52.0 | 49.0 | 69.0 | Risky |
| 2026-07-24 | 52.3 | 49.0 | 71.4 | Risky |
| 2026-07-23 | 44.9 | 39.8 | 73.3 | Cautious |
| 2026-07-22 | 46.1 | 41.4 | 73.0 | Cautious |
| 2026-07-21 | 49.4 | 45.3 | 72.3 | Cautious |
| 2026-07-20 | 49.4 | 45.7 | 70.8 | Cautious |
Not financial advice. Use the gauge as a risk thermometer, not a timing oracle.