Daily risk briefing ·
Market crash risk on 5 September 2026: 66.0% (Nearly Crash)
vs previous day change −0.1 pts vs previous day vs 1 week earlier change +4.2 pts vs 1 week earlier
This briefing was published under methodology v1 (fixed thresholds, trend penalty, regime multiplier). Its numbers are kept as published and are not comparable with v2 readings. See the current methodology.
Summary
The Financial Composite Gauge registered 71.0% (Nearly Crash), the Overall Gauge hit 66.0% (Nearly Crash), and the Geopolitical Layer is 50.9% (Risky).
Key geopolitical drivers include US diplomatic deployments to Moscow and Kyiv alongside sanctions on a Turkish financial institution.
Acute financial vulnerability outpaces moderate geopolitical risk, signaling that broader systemic pressures are driving markets toward near-crash conditions.
Geopolitical drivers
- US Envoys Deploy to Moscow and Kyiv for Talks61Diplomatic maneuvering introduces volatility to European energy supply/prices and drives sovereign credit/risk sentiment across continental benchmarks.
- Gaza Infrastructure Devastation Deepens Middle East Instability64Protracted regional hostilities sustain elevated risk premiums across critical maritime shipping lanes/chokepoints and global energy supply/prices.
- US Levies Sanctions on Turkish Financial Institution58Unilateral penalties heighten sanctions/trade disruption risks and place immediate downward pressure on Turkish lira credit/risk sentiment.
Biggest 5-day market moves
- Bitcoin/USD +1867.55
- Gold Spot Price −48.30
- WTI Crude Oil +8.08
Chart values use methodology v2 (point-in-time backfill), so they differ from the v1 numbers published above.
Show data table
| Date | Total | Financial | Geopolitical | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-18 | 39.9 | 36.1 | 61.3 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-17 | 45.5 | 43.0 | 60.0 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-16 | 45.8 | 43.1 | 61.4 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-15 | 44.6 | 41.1 | 64.0 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-14 | 40.6 | 36.3 | 65.6 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-11 | 48.8 | 42.2 | 85.6 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-10 | 41.7 | 38.2 | 61.7 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-09 | 39.6 | 35.6 | 62.3 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-08 | 40.7 | 32.4 | 87.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-07 | 35.4 | 31.4 | 58.2 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-04 | 33.2 | 29.0 | 57.1 | Safe |
| 2026-09-03 | 39.7 | 36.4 | 58.2 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-02 | 43.5 | 38.3 | 73.1 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-01 | 36.6 | 30.6 | 70.7 | Cautious |
| 2026-08-31 | 32.2 | 27.4 | 59.5 | Safe |
| 2026-08-28 | 31.2 | 26.4 | 58.3 | Safe |
| 2026-08-27 | 34.7 | 30.1 | 60.8 | Safe |
| 2026-08-26 | 35.8 | 31.2 | 62.0 | Cautious |
| 2026-08-25 | 38.3 | 34.4 | 60.2 | Cautious |
| 2026-08-24 | 36.6 | 32.8 | 58.4 | Cautious |
| 2026-08-21 | 39.1 | 36.0 | 56.7 | Cautious |
Not financial advice. Use the gauge as a risk thermometer, not a timing oracle.