Daily risk briefing ·
Market crash risk on 6 September 2026: 65.7% (Nearly Crash)
vs previous day change −0.3 pts vs previous day vs 1 week earlier change +3.3 pts vs 1 week earlier
This briefing was published under methodology v1 (fixed thresholds, trend penalty, regime multiplier). Its numbers are kept as published and are not comparable with v2 readings. See the current methodology.
Summary
The Financial Composite Gauge registered 71.0% (Nearly Crash), the Overall Gauge hit 65.7% (Nearly Crash), and the Geopolitical Layer is 50.0% (Risky).
Top drivers are Israeli bombardments in southern Lebanon (63.8%) and US envoy talks with Vladimir Putin over Ukraine (59.5%).
Acute financial stress sharply outpaces moderate geopolitical tension, signaling severe market vulnerability and heightened systemic downside risk across major asset classes.
Geopolitical drivers
- Israel Bombards Southern Lebanon64Increased conflict between Israel and Lebanon raises concerns about regional stability and potential disruption to energy supply routes and shipping in the Eastern Mediterranean.
- US Envoys Meet Putin Amid Ukraine Talks60Direct engagement between US and Russian officials regarding Ukraine could influence geopolitical risk sentiment and potentially impact energy markets and global trade flows.
- Yemeni Forces Claim District Amid Houthi Clashes55Intensified fighting in Yemen, particularly involving Houthi forces, poses a risk to crucial shipping lanes in the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb strait, impacting global trade and energy prices.
Biggest 5-day market moves
- Bitcoin/USD +1626.27
- WTI Crude Oil +8.08
- S&P 500 Index +6.84
Chart values use methodology v2 (point-in-time backfill), so they differ from the v1 numbers published above.
Show data table
| Date | Total | Financial | Geopolitical | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-21 | 37.9 | 34.0 | 59.7 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-18 | 39.9 | 36.1 | 61.3 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-17 | 45.5 | 43.0 | 60.0 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-16 | 45.8 | 43.1 | 61.4 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-15 | 44.6 | 41.1 | 64.0 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-14 | 40.6 | 36.3 | 65.6 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-11 | 48.8 | 42.2 | 85.6 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-10 | 41.7 | 38.2 | 61.7 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-09 | 39.6 | 35.6 | 62.3 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-08 | 40.7 | 32.4 | 87.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-07 | 35.4 | 31.4 | 58.2 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-04 | 33.2 | 29.0 | 57.1 | Safe |
| 2026-09-03 | 39.7 | 36.4 | 58.2 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-02 | 43.5 | 38.3 | 73.1 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-01 | 36.6 | 30.6 | 70.7 | Cautious |
| 2026-08-31 | 32.2 | 27.4 | 59.5 | Safe |
| 2026-08-28 | 31.2 | 26.4 | 58.3 | Safe |
| 2026-08-27 | 34.7 | 30.1 | 60.8 | Safe |
| 2026-08-26 | 35.8 | 31.2 | 62.0 | Cautious |
| 2026-08-25 | 38.3 | 34.4 | 60.2 | Cautious |
| 2026-08-24 | 36.6 | 32.8 | 58.4 | Cautious |
Not financial advice. Use the gauge as a risk thermometer, not a timing oracle.