Daily risk briefing ·
Market crash risk on 19 September 2026: 64.7% (Nearly Crash)
vs previous day change +0.1 pts vs previous day vs 1 week earlier change −8.7 pts vs 1 week earlier
This briefing was published under methodology v1 (fixed thresholds, trend penalty, regime multiplier). Its numbers are kept as published and are not comparable with v2 readings. See the current methodology.
Summary
The Financial Composite Gauge registered 69.1% (Nearly Crash), the Overall Gauge hit 64.7% (Nearly Crash), and the Geopolitical Layer is 51.5% (Risky).
Saudi air raid alerts and higher US troop casualties are top drivers.
These geopolitical risks likely fuel market caution and potential volatility.
Geopolitical drivers
- Reports of Higher US Troop Casualties in Iran Conflict86Underreported US combat losses threaten sharp retaliatory escalation, with the market transmission channel centered on Persian Gulf energy supply/prices and great-power escalation premiums.
- Saudi Riyadh Air Raid Alerts Following Houthi Escalation84Air raid alerts in Riyadh highlight immediate physical threats to Gulf critical infrastructure, transmitting risk directly into crude energy supply/prices and Red Sea shipping lanes/chokepoints.
- Potential US Troop Drawdown from European Theater66Proposals to withdraw a third of US troops from Europe weaken NATO deterrence, transmitting volatility via great-power escalation and European sovereign credit/risk sentiment.
Biggest 5-day market moves
- Bitcoin/USD +4085.92
- Gold Spot Price +16.00
- S&P 500 Index −6.48
Chart values use methodology v2 (point-in-time backfill), so they differ from the v1 numbers published above.
Show data table
| Date | Total | Financial | Geopolitical | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-04 | 49.6 | 46.4 | 67.7 | Cautious |
| 2026-10-02 | 51.8 | 49.4 | 65.7 | Risky |
| 2026-10-01 | 51.5 | 49.4 | 63.8 | Risky |
| 2026-09-30 | 50.8 | 48.4 | 64.6 | Risky |
| 2026-09-29 | 50.0 | 47.0 | 67.1 | Risky |
| 2026-09-28 | 42.5 | 38.4 | 65.4 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-25 | 43.9 | 41.1 | 59.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-24 | 39.9 | 36.2 | 60.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-23 | 34.4 | 29.8 | 60.8 | Safe |
| 2026-09-22 | 38.5 | 29.9 | 87.1 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-21 | 37.9 | 34.0 | 59.7 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-18 | 39.9 | 36.1 | 61.3 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-17 | 45.5 | 43.0 | 60.0 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-16 | 45.8 | 43.1 | 61.4 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-15 | 44.6 | 41.1 | 64.0 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-14 | 40.6 | 36.3 | 65.6 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-11 | 48.8 | 42.2 | 85.6 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-10 | 41.7 | 38.2 | 61.7 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-09 | 39.6 | 35.6 | 62.3 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-08 | 40.7 | 32.4 | 87.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-07 | 35.4 | 31.4 | 58.2 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-04 | 33.2 | 29.0 | 57.1 | Safe |
Not financial advice. Use the gauge as a risk thermometer, not a timing oracle.