Daily risk briefing ·
Market crash risk on 20 September 2026: 63.9% (Nearly Crash)
vs previous day change −0.8 pts vs previous day vs 1 week earlier change −10.3 pts vs 1 week earlier
This briefing was published under methodology v1 (fixed thresholds, trend penalty, regime multiplier). Its numbers are kept as published and are not comparable with v2 readings. See the current methodology.
Game Over Gauge63.9%Multiple stress signals agree (methodology v1).
Financial stress69.1%
Geopolitical risk48.5
Market regimerisk-off
Summary
Financial Composite and Overall Gauges are Nearly Crash, Geopolitical Layer is Risky.
Ukrainian drone attacks and Gaza conflict drive geopolitical risk.
These factors suggest heightened market caution and potential volatility.
Geopolitical drivers
- Ukrainian drone attacks hit Moscow region64Escalation of the Ukraine conflict with direct attacks on Russian territory can increase geopolitical risk sentiment and potentially impact energy supply discussions.
- Ongoing Gaza conflict and potential for wider regional impact55Continued conflict in Gaza poses a risk to regional stability, potentially disrupting energy supply routes and affecting global risk sentiment.
- Arctic exercise to counter satellite jamming29Military exercises focused on countering satellite jamming in the Arctic indicate heightened tensions in a strategically important region, potentially impacting technology and defense sectors.
Biggest 5-day market moves
- Bitcoin/USD +2968.23
- Gold Spot Price +16.00
- S&P 500 Index −6.48
Chart values use methodology v2 (point-in-time backfill), so they differ from the v1 numbers published above.
Show data table
| Date | Total | Financial | Geopolitical | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-04 | 49.6 | 46.4 | 67.7 | Cautious |
| 2026-10-02 | 51.8 | 49.4 | 65.7 | Risky |
| 2026-10-01 | 51.5 | 49.4 | 63.8 | Risky |
| 2026-09-30 | 50.8 | 48.4 | 64.6 | Risky |
| 2026-09-29 | 50.0 | 47.0 | 67.1 | Risky |
| 2026-09-28 | 42.5 | 38.4 | 65.4 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-25 | 43.9 | 41.1 | 59.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-24 | 39.9 | 36.2 | 60.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-23 | 34.4 | 29.8 | 60.8 | Safe |
| 2026-09-22 | 38.5 | 29.9 | 87.1 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-21 | 37.9 | 34.0 | 59.7 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-18 | 39.9 | 36.1 | 61.3 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-17 | 45.5 | 43.0 | 60.0 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-16 | 45.8 | 43.1 | 61.4 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-15 | 44.6 | 41.1 | 64.0 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-14 | 40.6 | 36.3 | 65.6 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-11 | 48.8 | 42.2 | 85.6 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-10 | 41.7 | 38.2 | 61.7 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-09 | 39.6 | 35.6 | 62.3 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-08 | 40.7 | 32.4 | 87.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-07 | 35.4 | 31.4 | 58.2 | Cautious |
Not financial advice. Use the gauge as a risk thermometer, not a timing oracle.