Daily risk briefing ·
Market crash risk on 11 July 2026: 59.1% (Risky)
vs previous day change −1.3 pts vs previous day vs 1 week earlier change +2.3 pts vs 1 week earlier
This briefing was published under methodology v1 (fixed thresholds, trend penalty, regime multiplier). Its numbers are kept as published and are not comparable with v2 readings. See the current methodology.
Summary
The Financial Composite Gauge registered 58.9% (Risky), the Overall Gauge hit 59.1% (Risky), and the Geopolitical Layer is 59.7% (Risky). Key drivers include US demands for Iran to cease shipping attacks and the escalating risk of a direct US-Iran military conflict. These compounding threats suggest heightened volatility for energy markets and a likely shift toward defensive, safe-haven assets.
Geopolitical drivers
- US Demands Iran Cease Shipping Attacks82US demands for Iran to cease targeting vessels in the Strait of Hormuz highlight ongoing maritime risks. This threatens shipping lanes/chokepoints and global energy supply/prices.
- Rising Risk of US-Iran Military Conflict79Speculation over an active US-Iran conflict increases geopolitical risk premiums. This elevates concerns regarding great-power escalation and energy supply/prices.
- Russian Missile Strikes Intensify on Kyiv64Renewed Russian missile strikes on Kyiv signal an intensification of the war. This drives great-power escalation and threatens regional energy supply/prices.
Biggest 5-day market moves
- Bitcoin/USD +1570.27
- S&P 500 Index +92.15
- Gold Spot Price −8.60
Chart values use methodology v2 (point-in-time backfill), so they differ from the v1 numbers published above.
Show data table
| Date | Total | Financial | Geopolitical | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | 52.3 | 49.0 | 71.4 | Risky |
| 2026-07-23 | 44.9 | 39.8 | 73.3 | Cautious |
| 2026-07-22 | 46.1 | 41.4 | 73.0 | Cautious |
| 2026-07-21 | 49.4 | 45.3 | 72.3 | Cautious |
| 2026-07-20 | 49.4 | 45.7 | 70.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-07-17 | 45.2 | 40.6 | 71.0 | Cautious |
| 2026-07-16 | 41.6 | 37.0 | 68.1 | Cautious |
| 2026-07-15 | 46.1 | 42.2 | 68.4 | Cautious |
| 2026-07-14 | 47.4 | 44.2 | 65.9 | Cautious |
| 2026-07-13 | 39.7 | 35.7 | 62.2 | Cautious |
| 2026-07-10 | 40.5 | 38.5 | 52.0 | Cautious |
| 2026-07-09 | 45.9 | 44.9 | 51.5 | Cautious |
| 2026-07-08 | 43.9 | 42.5 | 52.1 | Cautious |
| 2026-07-07 | 41.9 | 40.1 | 52.2 | Cautious |
| 2026-07-06 | 44.8 | 43.0 | 55.0 | Cautious |
| 2026-07-03 | 46.6 | 43.9 | 61.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-07-02 | 46.5 | 43.8 | 62.1 | Cautious |
| 2026-07-01 | 46.1 | 43.3 | 62.1 | Cautious |
| 2026-06-30 | 49.4 | 47.5 | 59.9 | Cautious |
| 2026-06-29 | 51.9 | 50.2 | 61.7 | Risky |
| 2026-06-26 | 52.0 | 49.8 | 64.3 | Risky |
Not financial advice. Use the gauge as a risk thermometer, not a timing oracle.