Daily risk briefing ·
Market crash risk on 19 July 2026: 64.1% (Nearly Crash)
vs previous day change +0.3 pts vs previous day vs 1 week earlier change +4.0 pts vs 1 week earlier
This briefing was published under methodology v1 (fixed thresholds, trend penalty, regime multiplier). Its numbers are kept as published and are not comparable with v2 readings. See the current methodology.
Summary
The Financial Composite Gauge registered 66.1% (Nearly Crash), the Overall Gauge hit 64.1% (Nearly Crash), and the Geopolitical Layer is 58.1% (Risky). Key drivers include a potential US-Iran direct military escalation at 85.0% and escalated Russian strikes on Kyiv at 68.0%. These compounding threats signal severe systemic fragility, prompting immediate defensive positioning to hedge against imminent market disruptions.
Geopolitical drivers
- US-Iran Direct Military Escalation85Direct military exchanges between the US and Iran threaten Middle East energy supply/prices and risk closing critical shipping lanes/chokepoints.
- Escalated Russian Strikes on Kyiv68The largest ballistic missile attack on Kyiv since the war's start heightens great-power escalation risks and threatens European energy supply/prices.
- Sustained US Bombing of Iran71Eight consecutive nights of US bombing in Iran escalate the risk of a wider regional war, threatening global shipping lanes/chokepoints.
Biggest 5-day market moves
- Bitcoin/USD +699.75
- S&P 500 Index −117.70
- Gold Spot Price −85.30
Chart values use methodology v2 (point-in-time backfill), so they differ from the v1 numbers published above.
Show data table
| Date | Total | Financial | Geopolitical | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-03 | 46.8 | 42.6 | 70.3 | Cautious |
| 2026-07-31 | 50.1 | 46.1 | 72.9 | Risky |
| 2026-07-30 | 56.9 | 54.2 | 72.2 | Risky |
| 2026-07-29 | 53.0 | 49.9 | 70.6 | Risky |
| 2026-07-28 | 53.2 | 50.2 | 69.9 | Risky |
| 2026-07-27 | 52.0 | 49.0 | 69.0 | Risky |
| 2026-07-24 | 52.3 | 49.0 | 71.4 | Risky |
| 2026-07-23 | 44.9 | 39.8 | 73.3 | Cautious |
| 2026-07-22 | 46.1 | 41.4 | 73.0 | Cautious |
| 2026-07-21 | 49.4 | 45.3 | 72.3 | Cautious |
| 2026-07-20 | 49.4 | 45.7 | 70.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-07-17 | 45.2 | 40.6 | 71.0 | Cautious |
| 2026-07-16 | 41.6 | 37.0 | 68.1 | Cautious |
| 2026-07-15 | 46.1 | 42.2 | 68.4 | Cautious |
| 2026-07-14 | 47.4 | 44.2 | 65.9 | Cautious |
| 2026-07-13 | 39.7 | 35.7 | 62.2 | Cautious |
| 2026-07-10 | 40.5 | 38.5 | 52.0 | Cautious |
| 2026-07-09 | 45.9 | 44.9 | 51.5 | Cautious |
| 2026-07-08 | 43.9 | 42.5 | 52.1 | Cautious |
| 2026-07-07 | 41.9 | 40.1 | 52.2 | Cautious |
| 2026-07-06 | 44.8 | 43.0 | 55.0 | Cautious |
Not financial advice. Use the gauge as a risk thermometer, not a timing oracle.