Daily risk briefing ·
Market crash risk on 18 July 2026: 63.8% (Nearly Crash)
vs previous day change +0.1 pts vs previous day vs 1 week earlier change +4.7 pts vs 1 week earlier
This briefing was published under methodology v1 (fixed thresholds, trend penalty, regime multiplier). Its numbers are kept as published and are not comparable with v2 readings. See the current methodology.
Summary
The Financial Composite Gauge registered 66.1% (Nearly Crash), the Overall Gauge hit 63.8% (Nearly Crash), and the Geopolitical Layer is 56.8% (Risky). Key drivers include ongoing US airstrikes in Iran and UK rural demands for heating oil protection. These elevated risk levels signal severe systemic vulnerability, suggesting imminent market downside and heightened volatility across energy sectors.
Geopolitical drivers
- US strikes hit Iran for seventh night85US military strikes hitting Iran for seven consecutive nights raise the risk of a wider Middle East conflict. Transmission channel: energy supply/prices and shipping lanes/chokepoints.
- UK rural demands for heating oil protection16Demands for heating oil protection plans in rural areas highlight vulnerability to energy price volatility. Transmission channel: energy supply/prices.
- Norway wildfire destroys homes14A massive fire in Norway destroying homes highlights climate-related risks to European energy-exporting infrastructure. Transmission channel: energy supply/prices.
Biggest 5-day market moves
- Bitcoin/USD −135.43
- S&P 500 Index −117.70
- Gold Spot Price −91.40
Chart values use methodology v2 (point-in-time backfill), so they differ from the v1 numbers published above.
Show data table
| Date | Total | Financial | Geopolitical | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | 50.1 | 46.1 | 72.9 | Risky |
| 2026-07-30 | 56.9 | 54.2 | 72.2 | Risky |
| 2026-07-29 | 53.0 | 49.9 | 70.6 | Risky |
| 2026-07-28 | 53.2 | 50.2 | 69.9 | Risky |
| 2026-07-27 | 52.0 | 49.0 | 69.0 | Risky |
| 2026-07-24 | 52.3 | 49.0 | 71.4 | Risky |
| 2026-07-23 | 44.9 | 39.8 | 73.3 | Cautious |
| 2026-07-22 | 46.1 | 41.4 | 73.0 | Cautious |
| 2026-07-21 | 49.4 | 45.3 | 72.3 | Cautious |
| 2026-07-20 | 49.4 | 45.7 | 70.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-07-17 | 45.2 | 40.6 | 71.0 | Cautious |
| 2026-07-16 | 41.6 | 37.0 | 68.1 | Cautious |
| 2026-07-15 | 46.1 | 42.2 | 68.4 | Cautious |
| 2026-07-14 | 47.4 | 44.2 | 65.9 | Cautious |
| 2026-07-13 | 39.7 | 35.7 | 62.2 | Cautious |
| 2026-07-10 | 40.5 | 38.5 | 52.0 | Cautious |
| 2026-07-09 | 45.9 | 44.9 | 51.5 | Cautious |
| 2026-07-08 | 43.9 | 42.5 | 52.1 | Cautious |
| 2026-07-07 | 41.9 | 40.1 | 52.2 | Cautious |
| 2026-07-06 | 44.8 | 43.0 | 55.0 | Cautious |
| 2026-07-03 | 46.6 | 43.9 | 61.8 | Cautious |
Not financial advice. Use the gauge as a risk thermometer, not a timing oracle.