Daily risk briefing ·
Market crash risk on 26 September 2026: 67.2% (Nearly Crash)
vs previous day change −4.9 pts vs previous day vs 1 week earlier change +2.5 pts vs 1 week earlier
This briefing was published under methodology v1 (fixed thresholds, trend penalty, regime multiplier). Its numbers are kept as published and are not comparable with v2 readings. See the current methodology.
Summary
The Financial Composite Gauge registered 73.2% (Nearly Crash), the Overall Gauge hit 67.2% (Nearly Crash), and the Geopolitical Layer is 49.1% (Risky).
Key geopolitical drivers include Iran's proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz alongside mounting economic pressure on Iraq.
This divergence indicates that severe financial distress persists despite tentative signs of regional geopolitical de-escalation.
Geopolitical drivers
- Iran offers deal to reopen Strait of Hormuz85A potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz could significantly ease oil supply concerns and reduce energy prices, impacting global commodity markets.
- Iran war squeezes Iraq's economy60The conflict's impact on Iraq's oil revenues and rising prices can lead to regional instability and affect global energy supply and prices.
- Gaza families shelter in collapsing buildings39Escalating conflict in Gaza can lead to broader regional instability, potentially disrupting trade routes and impacting investor sentiment.
Biggest 5-day market moves
- Bitcoin/USD +3318.92
- Gold Spot Price −103.70
- S&P 500 Index +92.91
Chart values use methodology v2 (point-in-time backfill), so they differ from the v1 numbers published above.
Show data table
| Date | Total | Financial | Geopolitical | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-04 | 49.6 | 46.4 | 67.7 | Cautious |
| 2026-10-02 | 51.8 | 49.4 | 65.7 | Risky |
| 2026-10-01 | 51.5 | 49.4 | 63.8 | Risky |
| 2026-09-30 | 50.8 | 48.4 | 64.6 | Risky |
| 2026-09-29 | 50.0 | 47.0 | 67.1 | Risky |
| 2026-09-28 | 42.5 | 38.4 | 65.4 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-25 | 43.9 | 41.1 | 59.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-24 | 39.9 | 36.2 | 60.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-23 | 34.4 | 29.8 | 60.8 | Safe |
| 2026-09-22 | 38.5 | 29.9 | 87.1 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-21 | 37.9 | 34.0 | 59.7 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-18 | 39.9 | 36.1 | 61.3 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-17 | 45.5 | 43.0 | 60.0 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-16 | 45.8 | 43.1 | 61.4 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-15 | 44.6 | 41.1 | 64.0 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-14 | 40.6 | 36.3 | 65.6 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-11 | 48.8 | 42.2 | 85.6 | Cautious |
Not financial advice. Use the gauge as a risk thermometer, not a timing oracle.