Daily risk briefing ·
Market crash risk on 27 September 2026: 68.3% (Nearly Crash)
vs previous day change +1.1 pts vs previous day vs 1 week earlier change +4.4 pts vs 1 week earlier
This briefing was published under methodology v1 (fixed thresholds, trend penalty, regime multiplier). Its numbers are kept as published and are not comparable with v2 readings. See the current methodology.
Summary
The Financial Composite Gauge registered 73.2% (Nearly Crash), the Overall Gauge hit 68.3% (Nearly Crash), and the Geopolitical Layer is 53.3% (Risky).
Key drivers include the rejected Hormuz deal escalating Gulf tensions and Iranian trade rerouting amid Strait of Hormuz impairment.
Severe financial stress significantly outpaces geopolitical risk, reflecting heightened vulnerability to maritime chokepoint disruptions and broader market instability.
Geopolitical drivers
- US Rejection of Hormuz Deal Escalates Gulf Tensions88Rejection of maritime transit negotiations threatens global energy supply and oil prices via heightened risk of confrontation across the Strait of Hormuz chokepoint.
- Iran Trade Rerouting Amid Strait of Hormuz Impairment82Disruptions along the Persian Gulf force freight toward Caspian corridors, increasing maritime shipping lane and logistics costs while reinforcing sanctions circumvention channels.
- Yemen Conflict Spillover Expands to Djibouti64Broadening regional instability near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait elevates maritime insurance premiums and threatens commercial shipping lanes through the Red Sea.
Biggest 5-day market moves
- Bitcoin/USD +3483.07
- Gold Spot Price −103.70
- S&P 500 Index +92.91
Chart values use methodology v2 (point-in-time backfill), so they differ from the v1 numbers published above.
Show data table
| Date | Total | Financial | Geopolitical | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-04 | 49.6 | 46.4 | 67.7 | Cautious |
| 2026-10-02 | 51.8 | 49.4 | 65.7 | Risky |
| 2026-10-01 | 51.5 | 49.4 | 63.8 | Risky |
| 2026-09-30 | 50.8 | 48.4 | 64.6 | Risky |
| 2026-09-29 | 50.0 | 47.0 | 67.1 | Risky |
| 2026-09-28 | 42.5 | 38.4 | 65.4 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-25 | 43.9 | 41.1 | 59.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-24 | 39.9 | 36.2 | 60.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-23 | 34.4 | 29.8 | 60.8 | Safe |
| 2026-09-22 | 38.5 | 29.9 | 87.1 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-21 | 37.9 | 34.0 | 59.7 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-18 | 39.9 | 36.1 | 61.3 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-17 | 45.5 | 43.0 | 60.0 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-16 | 45.8 | 43.1 | 61.4 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-15 | 44.6 | 41.1 | 64.0 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-14 | 40.6 | 36.3 | 65.6 | Cautious |
Not financial advice. Use the gauge as a risk thermometer, not a timing oracle.